Aspectos regulatórios da microgeração distribuída de energia: implicações nas projeções de cenários financeiros - caso Coelba

Abstract

Although the Brazilian energy matrix is predominantly renewable, the range of generating sources needs to be diversified, as currently the country is still very dependent on the hydrological conditions for energy generation. In this scenario, photovoltaic solar microgeneration is highlighted, since guaranteeing the supply of electric energy is not only an environmental issue, but rather an energy security and maintenance of economic growth. After several government tax incentives and a series of measures regulating distributed energy generation from the year 2012, the number of units with distributed microgeneration grew exponentially. In view of the above, the present work has the objective of identifying and analyzing potential scenarios, resulting from the expansion of the distributed microgeneration, regarding the feasibility of investments in the self-production of energy and the revenue of the Electric Power Company of the State of Bahia (COELBA). It is also intended in this dissertation to present the regulatory demands and feasible proposals that promote harmony among the actors involved in the distributed generation of electric energy. In order to reach the objectives of this work, a vast documentary research was carried out in the main sources of data of the electric sector, as a theoretical basis of the analyzes made and presented in the exploratory chapters. The simulations of financial viability of the proposals were executed in spreadsheets with totally public data. The analysis of scenarios and the measurement of the magnitude of its impacts promoted the identification of potential risks both for the diffusion of microgeneration (due to changes in tariffs) and for the stability of the distributor's revenue (due to market retraction and uncertainties in the recognition of investments). As a result, it has been verified that distributed generation in Brazil is a phenomenon that can be significantly slowed by adherence to the white tariff or by the possibility of implementing binomial pricing for micro generators. As for the distributors, it was verified that, with the progress of microgeneration, their losses will exceed annually, tens of millions of reais only with loss of revenue, not counting the cost of the investments necessary for the expansion and modernization of the network. For the consumer, generator or not, will weigh the tariff impacts with the regular increases in the electricity tariff. In the closing stages, a set of regulatory proposals is presented, which aims to balance the balance between the expansion of microgeneration and the financial stability of the distributor, with relevant attention to a possible expansion supported by government subsidy policies.