Impacto da seca meteorológica no Índice de Desenvolvimento Municipal.

Abstract

This thesis intends to analyze the relation between meteorological drought and Firjan Index for Municipal Development in Brazilian regions within the period of 2005 and 2016. For that purpose, the theoretical framework of the paper is based on the concepts of drought, municipal development and government spending. In addition, the empiric model employed linear regression in a panel (longitudinal) data format, using a database of socioeconomic information from 5461 Brazilian cities, adopting IFDM_EMPREGORENDA as dependent variable, the drought as independent variable of interest, according to SPI classification, and government spending, population and time as independent control variables. The result was a relevant statistic relation between drought and dependent variable on four Brazilian regions: Northeast, Southest, North and South, the only exception was Midwest region. Population was considerable in all regions with a negative impact, suggesting that, possibly, as population grows the studied index decreases. The variable Government Spending, that represents the amount of public spending in Brazilian cites listed in Education, Health and Employment database, significantly controlled IFDM_EMPREGORENDA, positively in regions Northeast and Southeast, negatively in South region and no influence in regions North and Midwest.