A reeleição e a eficiência dos municípios brasileiros sob a perspectiva da teoria da escolha pública

Abstract

This essay‘s goal was primarily evaluating whether municipalities with re-elected mayors improve public management efficiency, as measured by the Firjan fiscal management index (IFGF). To this end, two statistical models were applied: one which compares efficiency between a group of re-elected mayors with the group of mayors in their first term and a second model which evaluated how the efficiency indicator behaves during electoral year and next year following election. The survey has a quantitative nature using panel data regression. It also covered from 2006 to 2015, being data obtained from the IBGE, TSE e Firjan websites. Theoretical reference used was the public choice theory pública (BUCHANAN, 1986; TULLOCK; SELDON; BRADY, 2005), notably regarding the political cycles (DOWNS, 1957; NORDHAUS, 1975; LINDBECK, 1976; MACRAE, 1977). The data pointed out that most Brazilian municipalities experience a management level classified by Firjan as management in difficulty or critical. In the first regression model, data point out that re-elected mayors present a better score than mayors in their first term. Nevertheless, disparity between performances of re-elected mayors and those in the first term are relatively small. Furthermore, it was observed that behaviors over evaluated period for efficiency indicator trajectories are relatively similar which indicates small difference between the two groups. In a second model, results indicated that there are significant differences between the mayor's efficiency indicator in the election year and the election‘s subsequent year, showing that re-elected mayors work to improve management a year prior to the elections seeking to maximize votes achievement. Once re-elected, efficiency indicator falls significantly, emphasizing aspects discussed in the theory of public choice about the politicians‘ opportunism. As a limitation of this essay, it is important not to consider other factors which may influence the efficiency indicator used as well as the lack of qualitative studies that could broaden the knowledge about the analyzed phenomenon, such as investigating the public officials to understand the processes of management decision making. It is suggested then, that future work in this direction investigate the qualitative aspects of the decision making of the managers and other contextual environment variables which be used.