Desafios e oportunidades para gestão do Petróleo Brasileiro na Geopolítica da Primeira Metade do Século XXI: uma metodologia de análise de riscos

Abstract

This dissertation proposed to offer improvements to the management of Brazilian oil and, for that, assumed the responsibility of answering the following questions: "What risks (opportunities and threats) will Brazil face in the geopolitics of this first half of the 21st century?" ; and, "What are the best responses / strategies to be adopted by the country?". In this path, the work was divided into three chapters: Chapter I - Foundations and Origins of the 21st Century Geopolitics; Chapter II - Energy and (Re) Distribution of Global Power; and, Chapter III - Challenges and Opportunities of Brazil in the Geopolitics of the 21st Century. The methodology applied in the development of this work consisted basically of three stages. Initially, a broad bibliographical research was carried out with the purpose of knowing the origins and the evolutionary process of the current international geopolitics, as well as searching for the most important tendencies for the 21st century. Then, based on all the material researched, an analysis was made of the international scenario and the main risks (opportunities and threats) that Brazil will face in the time horizon defined in this research. Finally, the risk analysis framework developed by ChildFund International was used through the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) with the collaboration of PricewaterhouseCoopers: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), whose adaptation to this project was conducted using the "best practices" for risk management postulated by the Project Management Institute (PMI), the PMBOK® Guide. According to the adopted methodology, the risks that reached maximum levels (25 points) were risk 1: "China assumed global hegemony and implemented a new multipolar economic system" and risk 18: "Corruption and deterioration of national competitiveness, In this case, if the authors' forecasts are confirmed, China will assume the leading role in the international system, there will be greater participation of the emerging ones in the world economy and the economic blocs (especially BRICS) will gain greater projections and market share allowing great opportunities for Brazilian oil in the geopolitics of the 21st century.